News

U.S. Crude-Oil Inventories Expected to See Small Increase

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4.4

Andrew R. Michaud

• October 11, 2023

Overview

According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories are anticipated to experience a slight increase from the previous week. The Energy Department's closely watched inventory data is scheduled to be released on Thursday at 11 a.m. ET, a day later than usual due to the Columbus Day holiday.

Crude-Oil Stockpiles

Nine analysts and traders participated in the survey, and the average of their estimates revealed that U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are projected to have risen by 900,000 barrels for the week ending October 6th. While three forecasters predicted a decrease, six anticipated an increase. The range of expectations spans from a decrease of 1.7 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels.

Gasoline Inventories

Analysts predict that gasoline inventories will rise by 400,000 barrels from the previous week. Estimates range from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 3.1 million barrels.

Distillates

Forecasts suggest that stocks of distillates, primarily diesel fuel, will decrease by 300,000 barrels from the previous week. Predictions range from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels.

Refinery Use

Refinery use is expected to have fallen by 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, reaching 87.0%. Forecasts differ, ranging from a decrease of 0.8 percentage points to an increase of 1 percentage point. Two analysts did not provide a forecast.

| Analysts | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |-------------------------------|-------|----------|-------------|--------------| | Again Capital | -1.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | -0.6 | | Confluence Investment Mgmt. | 1 | -2 | -1 | -0.5 | | DTN | 1.6 | -1.8 | -1 | -0.4 | | Excel Futures | -1.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | -0.5 | | Spartan Capital Securities | -1.1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | n/f | | Mizuho | 3 | -1 | -2 | -0.5 | | Price Futures Group | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | 3 | -1 | -1.7 | -0.8 | | Tradition Energy | 0.5 | -1 | -2 | n/f | | AVERAGE | 0.9 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 |

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, except for refinery use which is in percentage points.